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Position Sizing and Risk Management

Stock trading involves more than simply identifying stocks that have the appropriate directional bias. You also must have a plan for preserving your capital and ensuring you will have enough of a buffer to survive the inevitable draw down periods. Before I can enter a trade, I must know exactly where my stop will be. The number of shares I purchase is determined based on this value.

Many traders will simply purchase an even dollar amount or an even number of shares in each trade. This method will cause traders to have a variable loss size. For instance one trade may result in a $50 loss while another trade results in a $500 loss. This variability in losses makes it harder to manage your overall portfolio risk. I manage my position sizing slightly different. Using a “max loss” dollar amount, I determine how many shares it takes to reach that loss if the stop is hit.

Position Sizing Example:

Current Stock Price: $20
Nearest Support Level: $18
Max Loss Willing to take: $100
Shares to buy: 50

This was calculated by the following formula: 100 / (20-18) = 50

Using this method of position sizing, stocks that allow for a tight stop loss will produce higher rates of return while stocks with wide stop losses produce sub par returns. You will notice in my daily stock analysis, that I have a tendency to discount signals that result in a wide stop loss for this reason. I rather preserve my capital until a better signal is generated.
 

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Stock Analysis for 3/30/12

Stock Market Today

The overall market is trying to determine where it wants to go from here. The turnaround towards the end of the day combined with 143 S&P stocks having an upward bias according to yesterdays Stock Analysis and 90 S&P stocks today having an upward bias, leads me to believe it may decide to break out to the upside. We did not get a chance to add any positions from our list yesterday, however several such as BTU and CMI would have been great to get into this afternoon had I been around my computer.

GAS: Down .1% since our entry.
NEM: Down .3% since our entry.
APOL: Even 0% since our entry.

First Level Stock Analysis:

Symbol
Score
5 Day Expectancy
20 Day Expectancy
NEM
52
+4.6%
+9.3%
APOL
47.36
+2%
+4.3%
RRC
36.4
+3.6%
+8%

 

Second Level Stock Analysis:

All three of these stocks have already appeared on our analysis this week. The scores of NEM, APOL, and RRC have all increased which indicates they are close to turning up.

Stock Analysis Summary

I will be watching RRC closely tomorrow for potential entry.
 

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Stock Analysis for 3/29/2012

Today’s Market

Today was a down day overall for the market. Currently 143 S&P 500 stocks have an upward bias over the next 5 days. What this means is, one week from today, the majority of these stocks should be higher than they are today. We placed two trades today. Purchased NEM at 51.50 and APOL at 39.02 around mid-day. We would have received a better price on APOL had we waited until market close.

GAS: Up .4% since our entry.

First Level Stock Analysis:

Symbol
Score
5 Day Expectancy
20 Day Expectancy
APOL
47.36
+2%
+4%
NEM
46.49
+3.5%
+8%
BTU
41.66
+3.9%
+4.6%
FTR
39
+1%
+1%
RRC
23.6
+3%
+6%
CMI
23
+1.6%
+4.2%

 

Second Level Stock Analysis:

Most of the stocks on our list today are the same ones that showed up yesterday. With NEM and APOL being two we have already entered. Please refer to Yesterday’s Analysis. CMI is the one new stock for today.

CMI Analysis: Cummins Inc, no near term corporate events. Several good locations for stops. Although the score is a little low, I will be watching this one tomorrow.

Stock Analysis Summary

Not many new stocks appeared on our list today. However, we will be watching FTR, BTU, RRC, and CMI closely tomorrow for potential entries.
 

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Stock Analysis for 3/28/2012

Today’s Market

The S&P now has 42 stocks with an upward bias. Overall today was a pretty subdued day. While GR was on our watch-list we did not enter. After looking at potential locations for our stop, a good risk/reward could not be established.

We are still holding our position in GAS. The stock is currently up: 1.2% since our entry.

First Level Stock Analysis:

Symbol
Score
5 Day Expectancy
20 Day Expectancy
NEM
46.5
+3.5%
+8%
APOL
46
+2%
+4%
FTR
37
+1%
+1.1%
HES
34.6
+.5%
+4%
BTU
25
+2.8%
+3.3%
GR
24
+1%
+3%
RRC
23.6
+3%
+6%
APA
23
+1%
+5%

 

Second Level Stock Analysis:

NEM Analysis: Newmont Mining Corporation, does not announce earnings until end of April. This stock scored the highest on our first level analysis today with a positive expectancy of +3.5% within 5 days and +8% within 20 days. A tight stop can be placed at about 1.5% below today’s closing price. This produces a very favorable risk/reward scenario.

APOL Analysis: This is the second time APOL has shown up on our radar. This time it does not have a pending earnings announcement to skew the model.

FTR Analysis: Frontier Communications Company, does not have a favorable risk/reward ratio. The most logical stop location would be nearly 5% below today’s closing price. With an expectancy of around 1%, this trade does not make much sense.

HES Analysis: Hess Corporation- no scheduled corporate events. The 5 day expectancy of .5% is a bit low, but the 20 day expectancy of 4% is attractive. A stop can be placed 2% below today’s closing price. The low 5 day expectancy may be a sign that this signal is a few days early.

BTU Analysis: Peabody Energy Corporation – no scheduled corporate events. With nearly +3% expectancy over the next 5 days this stock is attractive. The main concern here is the stop would be exceptionally tight at less than .5%. We may need to move the stop to the next support level creating a less attractive risk/reward ratio.

GR: Goodrich Corporation has now shown up two days in a row. This stock is projected to have a good expectancy over the next few days, however, the risk/reward is still not very attractive.

RRC: Range Resources Corporation has the second highest expectancy over 5 and 20 days. The stop for this one is a bit tricky. A tight stop at around 1% may be sufficient, but my gut tells me the 5% stop may be more realistic. This makes the risk/reward ratio a little less clear.

APA: Apache Corporation looks fairly solid with a great 20 day expectancy. The lower 5 day expectancy may point to the signal being slightly premature. A 1% stop is attainable.

Stock Analysis Summary

Tomorrow will be a busy day. We will be watching several of these stocks very closely. NEM, BTU, RRC, APOL, and APA are the most likely candidates. I try not to enter more than 1 or 2 stocks on any given day, but may need to make an exception tomorrow.
 

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Stock Analysis for 3/27/2012

Stock Market Today

Today the overall market bounced off of support around 13,000 on the Dow Jones Index. Currently 31 stocks in the S&P 500 are showing an upward bias. This number is higher than it was in our Stock Analysis yesterday. However, this increase is not due to the market being more bullish. We slightly tweaked the calculations used in reporting the broad market bias.

We entered long symbol:GAS at 38.82 this afternoon based on yesterdays Analysis, we currently have a stop at 38.29

No position was taken in APOL due to earnings. After hours the stock initially went up ~5%, but then fell back down. Depending on price action tomorrow, we may enter.

First Level Stock Analysis:

Symbol
Score
Historical Accuracy(+65%)
Adjusted Score
GR
30
65%
20

 

Second Level Stock Analysis:

 
GR Analysis: Goodrich Corporation, does not have any major corporate events on the horizon. However, I believe this stock to be a bit over extended. The automated analysis is generally more accurate than my “gut” feeling. I will watch the price action tomorrow before deciding.
 

Analysis Summary

Generally after having a large upward move like we had today, less stocks make it pass our first level analysis. Tomorrow we will continue to monitor our open position in GAS and evaluate potential GR entries.
 

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